Important dates: (blue dashed lines) delineating mask mandate / advice changes for “fully-vaccinated individuals”:
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Various 7-day average trends
Estimated Active, split by Age group: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going.
Definitions
Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 29 2021 | 11596 | 52685 | 406 | 108 | 33 | 45 |
| May 30 2021 | 11598 | 52714 | 406 | 108 | 32 | 43 |
| May 31 2021 | 11599 | 52733 | 407 | 108 | 30 | 44 |
| June 01 2021 | 11599 | 52744 | 408 | 109 | 30 | 40 |
| June 02 2021 | 11600 | 52734 | 409 | 109 | 24 | 37 |
| June 03 2021 | 11600 | 52741 | 409 | 109 | 19 | 34 |
| June 04 2021 | 11608 | 52739 | 409 | 109 | 27 | 39 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 1 | 0.3 | 18.5% | 5 | 0.04% | 6 | 0.05% |
| 10-19 | 3 | 0.6 | 25.9% | 7 | 0.05% | 9 | 0.07% |
| 20-29 | 3 | 0.6 | 25.9% | 7 | 0.03% | 10 | 0.05% |
| 30-39 | 0 | 0.1 | 11.1% | 3 | 0.02% | 5 | 0.04% |
| 40-49 | 1 | 0.3 | 7.4% | 2 | 0.02% | 4 | 0.04% |
| 50-59 | 0 | 0.1 | 3.7% | 1 | 0.01% | 1 | 0.01% |
| 60-69 | -1 | -0.1 | 0% | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| 70+ | 1 | 0.3 | 7.4% | 2 | 0.02% | 4 | 0.04% |
| All ages | 8 | 2.1 | 100% | 27 | 0.03% | 39 | 0.04% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 29 2021 | 7470 | 30999 | 280 | 94 | 48 | 65 |
| May 30 2021 | 7470 | 31024 | 280 | 94 | 42 | 65 |
| May 31 2021 | 7470 | 31034 | 281 | 94 | 37 | 65 |
| June 01 2021 | 7473 | 31032 | 281 | 94 | 35 | 57 |
| June 02 2021 | 7479 | 31051 | 282 | 94 | 41 | 57 |
| June 03 2021 | 7485 | 31054 | 285 | 94 | 46 | 57 |
| June 04 2021 | 7486 | 31067 | 285 | 94 | 39 | 53 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 0.1 | 7.7% | 3 | 0.04% | 3 | 0.04% |
| 10-19 | 1 | 0.1 | 5.1% | 2 | 0.02% | 2 | 0.02% |
| 20-29 | 0 | 0.1 | 20.5% | 8 | 0.11% | 12 | 0.17% |
| 30-39 | 0 | 0.1 | 7.7% | 3 | 0.04% | 3 | 0.04% |
| 40-49 | 0 | 0.4 | 17.9% | 7 | 0.09% | 9 | 0.12% |
| 50-59 | 0 | 1.1 | 33.3% | 13 | 0.13% | 16 | 0.16% |
| 60-69 | 0 | 0.3 | 5.1% | 2 | 0.02% | 5 | 0.06% |
| 70+ | 0 | 0.1 | 2.6% | 1 | 0.01% | 3 | 0.04% |
| All ages | 1 | 2.6 | 100% | 39 | 0.06% | 53 | 0.08% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 29 2021 | 5866 | 20597 | 277 | 82 | 25 | 39 |
| May 30 2021 | 5866 | 20603 | 277 | 82 | 21 | 34 |
| May 31 2021 | 5868 | 20613 | 278 | 82 | 20 | 36 |
| June 01 2021 | 5869 | 20612 | 279 | 82 | 20 | 32 |
| June 02 2021 | 5871 | 20637 | 280 | 83 | 19 | 30 |
| June 03 2021 | 5871 | 20643 | 281 | 83 | 14 | 26 |
| June 04 2021 | 5874 | 20659 | 281 | 83 | 13 | 26 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 0.1 | 7.7% | 1 | 0.02% | 3 | 0.06% |
| 10-19 | 0 | 0.1 | 15.4% | 2 | 0.04% | 6 | 0.11% |
| 20-29 | 0 | -0.1 | 0% | 0 | 0% | 2 | 0.04% |
| 30-39 | 0 | 0.1 | 7.7% | 1 | 0.02% | 3 | 0.06% |
| 40-49 | 1 | 0.1 | 7.7% | 1 | 0.02% | 2 | 0.04% |
| 50-59 | 1 | 0.3 | 23.1% | 3 | 0.04% | 3 | 0.04% |
| 60-69 | 1 | 0.1 | 15.4% | 2 | 0.03% | 3 | 0.05% |
| 70+ | 0 | 0.4 | 23.1% | 3 | 0.05% | 4 | 0.06% |
| All ages | 3 | 1.3 | 100% | 13 | 0.03% | 26 | 0.06% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 29 2021 | 12808 | 59516 | 435 | 87 | 25 | 27 |
| May 30 2021 | 12808 | 59548 | 436 | 87 | 11 | 26 |
| May 31 2021 | 12809 | 59575 | 436 | 87 | 11 | 27 |
| June 01 2021 | 12809 | 59593 | 437 | 87 | 12 | 27 |
| June 02 2021 | 12792 | 59644 | 437 | 88 | 9 | 27 |
| June 03 2021 | 12779 | 59634 | 438 | 88 | 8 | 13 |
| June 04 2021 | 12766 | 59651 | 440 | 88 | 8 | 12 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | -1 | -0.6 | 10.3% | -4 | -0.03% | -17 | -0.14% |
| 10-19 | 1 | -0.9 | 10.3% | -4 | -0.02% | -10 | -0.06% |
| 20-29 | -4 | -1.9 | 41% | -16 | -0.08% | -21 | -0.1% |
| 30-39 | -2 | -0.4 | 7.7% | -3 | -0.02% | -8 | -0.06% |
| 40-49 | -3 | -1.1 | 15.4% | -6 | -0.04% | -9 | -0.07% |
| 50-59 | -1 | -0.3 | 2.6% | -1 | -0.01% | -3 | -0.02% |
| 60-69 | -1 | -0.4 | 2.6% | -1 | -0.01% | -5 | -0.04% |
| 70+ | -2 | -0.6 | 10.3% | -4 | -0.03% | -5 | -0.04% |
| All ages | -13 | -6.1 | 100% | -39 | -0.03% | -78 | -0.07% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 29 2021 | 45022 | 353805 | 1522 | 310 | 202 | 268 |
| May 30 2021 | 45037 | 354054 | 1523 | 310 | 180 | 270 |
| May 31 2021 | 45047 | 354227 | 1526 | 310 | 155 | 276 |
| June 01 2021 | 45052 | 354401 | 1527 | 310 | 136 | 257 |
| June 02 2021 | 45060 | 354561 | 1530 | 310 | 123 | 240 |
| June 03 2021 | 45078 | 354602 | 1532 | 310 | 130 | 221 |
| June 04 2021 | 45088 | 354875 | 1534 | 310 | 128 | 196 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 1 | 1.1 | 10.2% | 13 | 0.02% | 19 | 0.03% |
| 10-19 | 6 | 1.9 | 16.4% | 21 | 0.03% | 32 | 0.05% |
| 20-29 | 0 | 3.9 | 32.8% | 42 | 0.04% | 66 | 0.06% |
| 30-39 | 1 | 1.0 | 12.5% | 16 | 0.02% | 27 | 0.04% |
| 40-49 | 0 | 1.1 | 9.4% | 12 | 0.02% | 15 | 0.02% |
| 50-59 | 1 | 0.9 | 8.6% | 11 | 0.02% | 15 | 0.02% |
| 60-69 | 1 | 0.9 | 7% | 9 | 0.02% | 12 | 0.02% |
| 70+ | 0 | 0.7 | 3.1% | 4 | 0.01% | 10 | 0.02% |
| All ages | 10 | 11.4 | 100% | 128 | 0.02% | 196 | 0.04% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 29 2021 | 609980 | 2942040 | 30965 | 7071 | 2842 | 4054 |
| May 30 2021 | 610082 | 2943979 | 30988 | 7076 | 2496 | 3924 |
| May 31 2021 | 610166 | 2945784 | 31031 | 7078 | 2174 | 3892 |
| June 01 2021 | 610224 | 2946952 | 31073 | 7094 | 1939 | 3469 |
| June 02 2021 | 610400 | 2948710 | 31150 | 7110 | 1968 | 3262 |
| June 03 2021 | 610565 | 2948845 | 31202 | 7129 | 1982 | 2979 |
| June 04 2021 | 610740 | 2950535 | 31261 | 7150 | 1781 | 2748 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 10 | 11.3 | 8% | 143 | 0.02% | 209 | 0.03% |
| 10-19 | 33 | 19.7 | 14.9% | 265 | 0.04% | 407 | 0.05% |
| 20-29 | 34 | 23.1 | 17.4% | 310 | 0.04% | 482 | 0.06% |
| 30-39 | 23 | 20.9 | 15.9% | 284 | 0.04% | 449 | 0.06% |
| 40-49 | 21 | 17.7 | 13.3% | 237 | 0.03% | 378 | 0.05% |
| 50-59 | 20 | 19.7 | 14.4% | 257 | 0.03% | 388 | 0.05% |
| 60-69 | 21 | 12.4 | 8.8% | 157 | 0.02% | 239 | 0.03% |
| 70+ | 13 | 11.3 | 7.2% | 128 | 0.02% | 196 | 0.03% |
| All ages | 175 | 136.1 | 100% | 1781 | 0.03% | 2748 | 0.05% |
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
| Eau Claire 2wk | Eau Claire 2wk10s | Eau Claire 2wk20s | Eau Claire current daily7 | Eau Claire past daily7 | Eau Claire posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.7 | 6.6 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 3.7 | 22.4% |
Important Resources:
| Chippewa 2wk | Chippewa current daily7 | Chippewa past daily7 | Chippewa posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8.2 | 2.6 | 4.9 | 17.3% |
| Barron 2wk | Barron current daily7 | Barron past daily7 | Barron posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5.7 | 1.3 | 3.6 | 11.2% |
| La Crosse 2wk | La Crosse 2wk10s | La Crosse 2wk20s | La Crosse current daily7 | La Crosse past daily7 | La Crosse posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -6.6 | -6 | -9.9 | 0.3 | 2.9 | -34.7% |
| Dane 2wk | Dane 2wk10s | Dane 2wk20s | Dane current daily7 | Dane past daily7 | Dane posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.6 | 4.5 | 6.4 | 11.4 | 25.3 | 5.7% |
| Wisconsin 2wk | Wisconsin 2wk10s | Wisconsin 2wk20s | Wisconsin current daily7 | Wisconsin past daily7 | Wisconsin posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.7 | 5.4 | 6.4 | 136.1 | 329.9 | 8.6% |
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 0.8 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.68 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2021-06-26 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 6369"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges